# Simulation Study with penetrance

#### BayesMendel Lab

## Goal

Here we apply the penetrance package to simulated families where the data-generating penetrance function is known and illustrate the estimation of the parameters of the Weibull distribution.

## Simulated Data

The data used for the simulation is available as `sim_fam.Rdata`. Recall the parameterization of the Weibull distribution.For the function \(f(x; \alpha, \beta, \delta, \gamma)\) we define:

\[ f(x; \alpha, \beta, \delta, \gamma) = \begin{cases} \gamma \left( \frac{\alpha}{\beta} \left( \frac{x - \delta}{\beta} \right)^{\alpha - 1} e^{-\left( \frac{x - \delta}{\beta} \right)^\alpha } \right), & x \geq \delta \\ 0, & x < \delta \end{cases} \]

And for the cumulative distribution function \(F(x; \alpha, \beta, \delta, \gamma)\):

\[ F(x; \alpha, \beta, \delta, \gamma) = \begin{cases} \gamma \left( 1 - e^{-\left( \frac{x - \delta}{\beta} \right)^\alpha } \right), & x \geq \delta \\ 0, & x < \delta \end{cases} \]

The data-generating penetrance was constructed using the following parameters for the Weibull distribution.

    # Create generating_penetrance data frame
    age <- 1:94

    # Calculate Weibull distribution for Females
    alpha <- 2
    beta  <- 50
    gamma <- 0.6
    delta <- 15
    penetrance.mod.f <- dweibull(age - delta, alpha, beta) * gamma

    # Calculate Weibull distribution for Males
    alpha <- 2
    beta  <- 50
    gamma <- 0.6
    delta <- 30
    penetrance.mod.m <- dweibull(age - delta, alpha, beta) * gamma

    generating_penetrance <- data.frame(
        Age = age,
        Female = penetrance.mod.f,
        Male = penetrance.mod.m
    )

The families were simulated using the PedUtils Rpackage.

    dat <- simulated_families

## Simple simulation

Then we run the estimation using the default settings.

    # Set the random seed
    set.seed(2024)

    # Set the prior
    prior_params <- list(
        asymptote = list(g1 = 1, g2 = 1),
        threshold = list(min = 5, max = 40),
        median = list(m1 = 2, m2 = 2),
        first_quartile = list(q1 = 6, q2 = 3)
    )

    # Set the prevalence
    prevMLH1 <- 0.001

    # We use the default baseline (non-carrier) penetrance
    print(baseline_data_default)

    # We run the estimation procedure with one chain and 20k iterations
    out_sim <- penetrance(
        pedigree  = dat, twins = NULL, n_chains = 1, n_iter_per_chain = 20000,
        ncores = 2, baseline_data = baseline_data_default , prev = prevMLH1,
        prior_params = prior_params, burn_in = 0.1, median_max = TRUE,
        ageImputation = FALSE, removeProband = FALSE
    )

## Comparison of estimated curves vs. data-generating curves

We then plot the respective penetrance curves from the data-generating distribution defined above and the penetrance curves (including credible intervals) from the estimation procedure.

    # Function to calculate Weibull cumulative density
    weibull_cumulative <- function(x, alpha, beta, threshold, asymptote) {
      pweibull(x - threshold, shape = alpha, scale = beta) * asymptote
    }

    # Function to plot the penetrance and compare with simulated data
    plot_penetrance_comparison <- function(data, generating_penetrance, prob, max_age, sex) {
      if (prob <= 0 || prob >= 1) {
        stop("prob must be between 0 and 1")
      }

      # Calculate Weibull parameters for the given sex
      params <- if (sex == "Male") {
        calculate_weibull_parameters(
          data$median_male_results,
          data$first_quartile_male_results,
          data$threshold_male_results
        )
      } else if (sex == "Female") {
        calculate_weibull_parameters(
          data$median_female_results,
          data$first_quartile_female_results,
          data$threshold_female_results
        )
      } else {
        stop("Invalid sex. Please choose 'Male' or 'Female'.")
      }

      alphas <- params$alpha
      betas <- params$beta
      thresholds <- if (sex == "Male") data$threshold_male_results else data$threshold_female_results
      asymptotes <- if (sex == "Male") data$asymptote_male_results else data$asymptote_female_results

      x_values <- seq(1, max_age)

      # Calculate cumulative densities for the specified sex
      cumulative_density <- mapply(function(alpha, beta, threshold, asymptote) {
        pweibull(x_values - threshold, shape = alpha, scale = beta) * asymptote
      }, alphas, betas, thresholds, asymptotes, SIMPLIFY = FALSE)

      distributions_matrix <- matrix(unlist(cumulative_density), nrow = length(x_values), byrow = FALSE)
      mean_density <- rowMeans(distributions_matrix, na.rm = TRUE)

      # Calculate credible intervals
      lower_prob <- (1 - prob) / 2
      upper_prob <- 1 - lower_prob
      lower_ci <- apply(distributions_matrix, 1, quantile, probs = lower_prob)
      upper_ci <- apply(distributions_matrix, 1, quantile, probs = upper_prob)

      # Recover the data-generating penetrance
      cumulative_generating_penetrance <- cumsum(generating_penetrance[[sex]])

      # Create data frame for plotting
      age_values <- seq_along(cumulative_generating_penetrance)
      min_length <- min(length(cumulative_generating_penetrance), length(mean_density))

      plot_df <- data.frame(
        age = age_values[1:min_length],
        cumulative_generating_penetrance = cumulative_generating_penetrance[1:min_length],
        mean_density = mean_density[1:min_length],
        lower_ci = lower_ci[1:min_length],
        upper_ci = upper_ci[1:min_length]
      )

      # Plot the cumulative densities with credible intervals
      p <- ggplot(plot_df, aes(x = age)) +
        geom_line(aes(y = cumulative_generating_penetrance, color = "Data-generating penetrance"), linewidth = 1, linetype = "solid", na.rm = TRUE) +
        geom_line(aes(y = mean_density, color = "Estimated penetrance"), linewidth = 1, linetype = "dotted", na.rm = TRUE) +
        geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = lower_ci, ymax = upper_ci), alpha = 0.2, fill = "red", na.rm = TRUE) +
        labs(title = paste("Cumulative Density Comparison for", sex),
             x = "Age",
             y = "Cumulative Density") +
        theme_minimal() +
        scale_color_manual(values = c("Data-generating penetrance" = "blue",
                                      "Estimated penetrance" = "red")) +
        scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent) +
        theme(legend.title = element_blank())

      print(p)

      # Calculate Mean Squared Error (MSE)
      mse <- mean((plot_df$cumulative_generating_penetrance - plot_df$mean_density)^2, na.rm = TRUE)
      cat("Mean Squared Error (MSE):", mse, "\n")

      # Calculate Confidence Interval Coverage
      coverage <- mean((plot_df$cumulative_generating_penetrance >= plot_df$lower_ci) &
                       (plot_df$cumulative_generating_penetrance <= plot_df$upper_ci), na.rm = TRUE)
      cat("Confidence Interval Coverage:", coverage, "\n")
    }

    # Plot for Female
    plot_penetrance_comparison(
      data = out_sim$combined_chains,
      generating_penetrance = generating_penetrance,
      prob = 0.95,
      max_age = 94,
      sex = "Female"
    )

    ## Mean Squared Error (MSE): 0.002250424
    ## Confidence Interval Coverage: 0.6702128

    # Plot for Male
    plot_penetrance_comparison(
      data = out_sim$combined_chains,
      generating_penetrance = generating_penetrance,
      prob = 0.95,
      max_age = 94,
      sex = "Male"
    )

    ## Mean Squared Error (MSE): 0.000929737
    ## Confidence Interval Coverage: 1